A Contract the Pirates Can’t Afford to Avoid

Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe is putting together one of the best seasons of his career. The soon-to-be 32-year-old has produced 2.5 WAR while batting .261 with 14 home runs and 36 RBI. If his production continues, Lowe could go down as General Manager Ben Cherington's best trade acquisition during his tenure with the Pirates.

The challenge for Pittsburgh is that Lowe is set to become a free agent after the season and appears headed for a significant payday. Last offseason, second baseman Jorge Polanco was among the top players at the position available on the market. Polanco signed a two-year, $40 million contract with the New York Mets after posting a 2.5 WAR season in which he batted .265 with 26 home runs and 78 RBI.

Lowe is already more than halfway to Polanco's home run total and is on pace to surpass his RBI production. According to Baseball-Reference, the most comparable player to Lowe at this stage of his career is San Francisco Giants third baseman Matt Chapman. Chapman signed a six-year, $151 million contract extension with the Giants following the 2024 season.

Whether Lowe reaches Chapman's price range remains to be seen, but he has positioned himself for a lucrative contract. His value also extends beyond his individual numbers. The Pirates do not have an obvious replacement waiting in the system.

Termarr Johnson is the organization's closest internal option at second base. While Johnson remains one of the club's top prospects at just 21 years old, he has batted .242 with 44 home runs in 414 minor league games. His potential is undeniable, but relying on potential alone is a risky proposition.

The Pirates are in the Paul Skenes era, and that competitive window may not remain open forever. If the organization is serious about building a contender around its young ace, retaining proven offensive contributors should be a priority.

For that reason, Cherington and the Pirates should make every effort to keep Lowe in Pittsburgh. The organization cannot afford to let one of its most productive hitters leave without making a serious attempt to bring him back.

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